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For some – a trade war, for others – profits: Ferrous metals are resisting falling prices, maintaining the creditworthiness of the industry

Russian iron & steel industry: 2023 outlook

The forecast is made in compliance with General Principles of Socioeconomic Indicators Forecasting.​

  • In 2018, the trade wars between the US, China, and other steel producing countries kept steel and raw material prices from falling. Nevertheless, from 2019 through 2023, we expect a decrease in prices for these products. The artificial increase in steel prices in the United States due to this year’s 25% tariff on steel imports will dissipate. Support will be provided by the growth of supply of raw materials for the ferrous metal industry. By 2023, ACRA expects coking coal and iron ore concentrate prices to drop to $140-150 and $62 per metric ton, respectively (at the end of this year, up to $194 and $68). Concurrently, from 2019 through 2023, the commissioning of new steelmaking facilities in India and the Asia-Pacific region will continue, which could lead to a decrease in the global facility load to 72% (up to 76% this year). All this creates the prerequisites for the fall in…

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