Training on banks and NBCOs, January 24–25

U.S. interest rates in 2017 and 2018: What to expect?

Contributed to Vedomosti by Vincent Truglia, member of the ACRA Board of Directors

The course of events will be largely determined by the scale and speed of economic and budgetary reforms on Trump’s presidential agenda 

In recent years, the impact of the U.S. economic policy on the global economy and individual countries has been manifesting itself mainly through Fed interest rates. The soft monetary policy enforced following the 2007–2008 crisis had resulted in lower yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and a weaker USD, fostering growth of oil prices and giving a boost to emerging markets. Yet the expected rise of Fed rates will make assets of emerging economies less attractive, and a stronger dollar will put pressure on commodity listings.

If Donald Trump’s economic agenda gets adopted, within the next two years we can expect a more rapid increase of U.S. interest rates up to 2 percentage points. Chances are high that rates will be rising throughout 2017 and, apparently, we will see at least four increases.

The Trump effect

The number and size of 2017 FRS…

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