Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Russian economy: recession knocked out. What next?

Russia 2021 economic outlook update

  • In terms of economic growth Russia will be closer to developed rather than developing countries in the short term. The recession is over, judging by GDP switching back to weak positive dynamics and in view of how the economy uses available resources. The years to come are to see labor productivity changes driving most of growth, which may also be influenced by a restraining effect of the demographic situation and a steady decline in inflation and interest rates. That said, even amid high oil prices the potential GDP growth is likely to be capped at 1-1.5% over the next five years. Despite low inflation and obvious, although modest, economic growth, household income may still show a slightly negative trend by end-2017.
  • Inflation receding to sustainable lows may impair labor market efficiency. Climbing consumer prices bolster real wage flexibility (inverse correlation), allowing employers to adjust to changing external environment without adjusting remuneration. Steadily declining…

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