Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Oil dependence recovers along with Azerbaijan economy coming out of stagnation

Azerbaijani economy: 2022 outlook

  • The economy is coming out of stagnation. This year, the economy will grow by 1.5%. The key drivers include recovering external demand for a basic export commodity and growing non-primary economy as a phenomenon of delayed activity. However, until 2022, no significant growth drivers are expected to emerge, and the annual growth will be within 3.2%.
  • The regulator has managed to cap the inflation, which reached double-digit values in 2016 and 2017. The surge was caused by a shock in the exchange rate dynamics and a high level of import dependence. According to ACRA estimates, in 2018–2022, the inflation will be in range 4–6%, following the counter-cyclical regulatory policy and the end of the translation of the exchange rate shock into price formation.
  • Significant dependence of the economy on mineral resources remains the main risk. At the same time, the basic forecast scenario implies a low probability of worsening demand; the trade balance will remain positive, provided that…

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