According to the World Bank Methodology.
 According to the new Federal State Statistics Service Methodology, based on System of National Accounts - 2008.
 The font color marks the main adjustments to earlier forecasts.
 Physical volume growth index corrected by the investment deflator.
Social and economic statistics for January-July, 2016, show that the recession has not ended de facto. Current growth rates of the most important flows, being seasonally adjusted, remain negative (see Figure 1). The last five months saw mining, manufacturing, construction and other basic sectors showing a decline. A dramatic increase in physical volumes of oil and coal production late in 2015 could have supported related industries and the economy as a whole for a while, but in general a long-term raw-material extraction growth trend looks hardly sustainable.
 Monthly increments are taken from the seasonally adjusted series of index levels, the method X12-ARIMA adjusted for calendar effect.
“Flexible” indicators (exchange rate, prices, imports) quickly adjusted to new conditions, while “hard” ones (consumer spending, employment, the budget) smoothen adaptation, but increase its time lapse.
The commodity price shock seen in 2014-2015 still directly impacts the Russian economy, although the “first wave” of adjustment is completed. “Flexible” indicators (exchange rate, imports, consumer prices) have generally come into equilibrium with the new balance of payments structure by mid-late 2015. They served as main transmission channels and shock absorbers for “harder” intrinsic indicators.
Read more about the effect of an interest rate cut in an ACRA research published July 5, 2016, and titled “Lowering interest rates to provide modest impetus to consumer lending”.
Read more about consumer demand adjustment in an ACRA research published June 6, 2016, and titled “Consumption: absence of growth to be offset by quality change”.
The “second wave” of economic adaptation came in the form of “harder” indicators adjustment (consumer spending, employment, the budget). It manifests itself as damped self-sustained oscillations in internal demand, with declining real expenditures of economic agents in one category leading to an income fall in the other forcing the latter to reduce consumption and, consequently, making the former face a further income drop.
The longevity of the “second wave” arises from economic agents’ aspirations and ability to smoothen expenditures and consumption relative to income dynamics. This trend may well be exemplified by the government – its ability to cover a sudden budget deficit by debt or reserves allows to stretch real spending cuts for several years. On the other hand, individuals that hold credit cards may afford maintaining for some time the level of consumption similar to the one they enjoyed earlier, when their real income was higher. Opportunities related to delayed spending cuts offer support to incomes of other economic agents. Al in all, the adjustment of domestic demand to the new environment gets strongly stretched in time (see Figure 3), which distinguishes the current recession from, for example, the one seen in 1998.
The structure of employment as one of the “hard” indicators adjusts to new conditions with a big lag. A deferred unemployment increase is possible in 2017-2018
Although the labor market seemingly lacks flexibility, its intersectoral labor force flows provide for unemployment remaining low. Reduction of employment in manufacturing, construction and electricity is being compensated by its growth in trade and services sectors. Thus, the structure of employment in the private sector adjusts to the new conditions relatively fast, although the observed flows may not be as productive as it seems. Over the past year, despite employment growth, these sectors saw no activity growth to say the least (in fact trade lost 10%, while services showed a 2% decline). Recipient industries suffer from declining labor productivity.
The situation on the labor market shows that fiscal consolidation will have a delayed negative impact on domestic demand. About 35% of household income that directly depends on economic or redistributive activities of the state is likely to decline in real terms throughout the entire adjustment period of real state expenditures, i. e. probably until 2018-2019. In the public sector, wages are more flexible than employment in the short term, but in the medium term, the lagging indexation of wages in the public sector, which is observed even now (see Figure 4), will create prerequisites here for employment waning.
Labor force “buffering” to the non-growing trade and services sectors, coupled with public sector contraction, can cause a deferred rise in unemployment.
You will receive an email with a link to change your password
Полное использование материалов сайта разрешается только с письменного согласия правообладателя, АКРА (АО). Частичное использование материалов сайта (не более 30% текста статьи) разрешается только при условии указания гиперссылки на непосредственный адрес материала на сайте www.acra-ratings.ru . Гиперссылка должна быть размещена в подзаголовке или в первом абзаце материала. Размер шрифта гиперссылки не должен быть меньше шрифта текста используемого материала.