Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Stressful scenarios are becoming more likely for the Russian economy

Russia 2022 Economic Outlook Update

The outlook was prepared in compliance with ACRA’s General Principles of Socioeconomic Indicators Forecasting.

  • The updated outlook for 2019-2022 mainly concerns the estimates on the long-term consequences of growing protectionism in world trade and the level of short-term equilibrium interest rates in Russia. The increase in VAT rate will trigger a one-time rise in the customer price index by 1-1.2 percentage points at the end of 2018 through the beginning of 2019. At least until mid-2019, oil prices in rubles will remain at a historically high level and therefore there will be a temporary surplus in the federal budget. Adjusting the macroeconomic outlook from April 2018, we are reviewing our expectations regarding the possibility of new sanctions against Russia and assessing the probability of this occurrence of this event as higher. We also predict the worsening of the negative impact of protectionist measures on the US and Chinese economies.
  • Six external risks, which are

The full version of this document is only available after a payment.

To clarify the cost and terms of payment, please contact Artem Mayorov

phone: +7 (495) 139 04 80, доб. 147, email: artem.mayorov@acra-ratings.ru

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